Phyrex.Ni

I don't think I have any talent for trading, nor do I consider myself a professional trader, but I have my own understanding of trading, especially when it comes to assets that can be judged through macro and economic analysis. I believe this kind of money can be earned by most people. Yesterday, I said I felt Iran wouldn't sign the contract smoothly because the announced agreement was unilateral from the US side, and Iran hadn't clearly expressed its stance. So I liquidated half of my position. Just after finishing that, I saw Iran express dissatisfaction, stating that the Strait of Hormuz should still be under Iran's jurisdiction. Before Trump's tone tightened, I chose to liquidate the other half of my WTI short position at a price of $90. But I have always believed that high oil prices harm not only the US but the entire world. Therefore, I suggest continuing to short WTI on rallies. Personally, I add to my position every time the price rises by $0.5. Currently, I haven't bought at $94; my average price is $92.2. If the price continues to rise, I will keep buying. If it can't rise further, the position I hold now is about half of what I had before, which means I've made a $2 spread, roughly an 18% extra return. Moreover, if this really ends this time, I won't be looking at $90 but around $85. This money was earned through understanding macroeconomics. You don't need to understand candlestick charts, complex logic, or watch the market nonstop all day. Just allow enough margin for error and have a basic understanding of the current international situation. I don't know about others, but I know that both @Cato_KT and @DL_W59 have made money this way. They both explained the logic in detail. Interested friends can check it out. Overall, this kind of money is made through cognition; it's not complicated and doesn't take long—just about a month. More importantly, you can calculate a reasonable liquidation price. Of course, this situation doesn't happen often, but when it does, you should seize the opportunity.

The current sentiment is a bit complicated. I'm happy that my intuition was right—indeed, the US and Iran are entangled again. I closed all my short positions at the WTI low, but it's frustrating that the repeated back-and-forth between the US and Iran has started to fatigue the market. Especially since WTI's price has experienced three major swings since the temporary ceasefire on April 7. The market feels like a headless fly being led by the so-called "negotiations." From a trend perspective, both the market and WTI itself have clear confidence in the "peace talks"—it's just a matter of time. Although there have been two failed attempts so far, WTI's price has been in a downward channel since the temporary ceasefire. The two failed negotiations have already pushed WTI's price down somewhat, which is what the market expected to see. Monday is a US holiday, so the US stock market will be closed, allowing for some further easing. However, CME opens on Monday, which might cause some volatility in oil prices. At Friday's close, WTI was nearly $97, and the market may reassess this price. Looking back at Bitcoin data, although many friends don't pay much attention, I still want to say that currently $BTC's price remains closely related to US politics, economy, and macro factors. On days when the US stock market is closed, these three data points are the best price guides for Bitcoin. The approach shouldn't be simply bullish when prices rise or bearish when they fall; instead, more focus should be placed on these three pieces of information. #Bitget You become VIP as soon as you join! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs—global opportunities all in one place

Honestly, my sixth sense is pretty accurate. Early this morning, I closed all my short positions on WTI at $90 because I felt the situation in Iran was unstable. As expected, the negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled again. The US continues to block Iranian ports, while Iran is still blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This afternoon, I said I would add to my position every time WTI rises by 0.5%, and now I've added up to $94. If it reaches $95, I'll hold off for a bit because at $95 it might pull back before heading to $100. I'll add more only after it passes $100. Personally, I think $95 is a watershed moment this time. Although Trump says there's plenty of time to take it slow, he's more impatient than anyone. The June interest rate meeting has some significance; if someone like Powell dares to talk about cutting rates now, Americans would criticize him harshly, and the media would label it as Trump's influence. What Trump is doing now is a test of endurance against Iran, but with limited time, he can only keep tightening the screws on Iran. So, I personally don't think WTI can stay above $100 for long. Even staying above $90 is enough to trigger another inflation surge in the US, especially with the midterm elections coming up this year. Trump doesn't have much time left. So I choose to keep shorting WTI on rallies.

I slept straight through to the afternoon this time. After waking up, I went over the missed news again and found that Iran's level of cooperation is not very high. It's very likely that this is another case of unilateral US propaganda. However, judging from various signs, there has indeed been substantive communication between Iran and the US this time. There seem to be two unresolved details: 1. Who will manage the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it will manage it, while the US says it will give Iran 30 days to "wrap things up." But from any perspective, WTI prices are very likely to experience some volatility. 2. The issue of enriched uranium. This is probably the main reason why the US and Iran have not yet reached a full reconciliation. From the current information, the US is likely to offer Iran some minor leniency, though the specifics are unknown. However, this leniency probably does not satisfy Iran. Considering these two points, even if the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens before trading starts on Tuesday, it will likely take some time for WTI prices to fall back below $80. So I am starting to place a bottom buy order to short again from $91. Using the same logic, if WTI continues to rise, I will keep shorting at higher levels, roughly adding to my position every $0.5 increase. I have no target price, but my intuition (which may not be accurate) tells me I might catch orders at a high level. Although I opened a short position on CLUSDT on Binance, I still recommend opening orders through a broker if your target price is below $80, because this time the duration might be quite long, and funding rates on exchanges probably won't be cheap.

One more thing before going to sleep, maybe I closed too early, but it’s not a big deal. After all, my first target was $90, and after fully closing the position, the total profit exceeded 100%. That’s enough for me. If the funding rate were low, I could have held on, but currently, a funding rate over -0.3% is a bit inappropriate. This is already the third wave I’ve done after the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The total profit has reached the expected goal. Of course, I believe there’s still room to go down further. Normally, reaching $80 wouldn’t be a problem, but it might take some time. I’m just waiting for this high funding rate period to pass before making any moves. Of course, it’s also fine if I can’t continue to profit, since no one can make money from start to finish. This time’s profit is a good "knowledge monetization." I explained the reasons for shorting WTI for about four weeks and also provided the liquidation price settings and rationale. And I’m glad the liquidation price didn’t exceed $120. What I want to express is that this is trend and cognitive trading, with relatively low risk and decent profits. If I can make a profit, you definitely can too. Below $90, if there’s a chance, I’ll make another move. If I miss it, it’s no big deal. There will be more opportunities. Going to sleep.

It finally looks like the probability of a complete ceasefire between the US and Iran has increased. Although it’s still uncertain whether this time it will really end, considering that China and others are pushing for it, and it’s already the end of May, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasting almost three months, the impact on the global economy has forced many countries to intervene. So at the very least, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should end by the end of May, which should be the most basic agreement. The information currently received is still very positive. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan stated that this negotiation carries cautious optimism, which is the most positive response Iran has given since the ceasefire. Although this does not represent the final outcome, the US is also unusually serious in the discussions. Although Trump is still making rhetoric, he is clearly moving towards a full ceasefire process. Currently, the price of the CLUSDT trading pair is around $94, but since the US stock market is closed on Monday for Memorial Day, CME is still open, so we can still see fluctuations in WTI prices. However, Trump’s intention seems to be to provide an answer before Monday, so now we just wait patiently. Looking back at Bitcoin data, today once again proved that $BTC’s price is heavily influenced by US macro and political factors. During the day, many were talking about seeing $50,000, but the news of a US-Iran ceasefire in the evening turned BTC from a decline into a rise. There’s nothing more to say; BTC is currently a leading indicator of US stock market sentiment, especially since the US market is closed until Monday. #Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place