FreedmanCrypto[互关版]

While pushing my kid on the swing, I sneaked a glance at my OKX account and almost dropped my phone into the sandbox with a shaky hand. $SUI plummeted 9% in 24 hours, now stuck at the $1 whole number mark, just one last prick away from breaking through. Honestly, I had a premonition about this round of decline, but I didn’t expect it to be this brutal. The entire altcoin sector is getting bloodied: $ETH dropped 4.5%, holding just above two thousand, $SOL fell 5.5% breaking below 83, $DOGE nearly 6%, and $PEPE even 8%. $TRUMP, which was hyped up a few days ago, also dropped 5%, a total collapse across the board. What worries me more is the capital flow data: ETF reports show XRP had a net inflow of $42 million against the trend, but BTC ETFs saw $1.4 billion withdrawn in the same period. Big money is quietly rotating while retail investors are still holding on desperately. BTC is still holding at 74,000 for now, but altcoins have already crashed first. If BTC can’t hold later, that will be the real big purge. Whether $1 holds tonight might decide if SUI rebounds from the bottom or continues to test lower. Do you still have SUI? At this point, do you choose to cut losses or hold on?

While taking a break at work, I checked the market. $BTC is still hovering above $77,500 without much momentum, but the news that Kevin Warsh officially took over as Fed Chair today has made the market atmosphere a bit tense. The whole market is sluggish; $BTC is grinding near $77,500, $ETH is also moving sideways above $2,100, but $SOL took the opportunity to move—someone in the group started showing profits, saying SOL is getting stronger today. I looked at my own positions, holding only $BTC and $ETH; I had already stopped out and sold SOL at that level. Now seeing everyone talk about SOL profits, I’m starting to wonder if I missed out. Kevin Warsh is famously hawkish, completely different from Powell. With him stepping in, market uncertainty has increased. The big coin aiming to break 80K now seems far off. The fact that SOL can strengthen independently while the big coin is sideways definitely has a reason—either institutions are quietly building positions, or there’s some positive news I don’t know about. But I’m afraid to make a move now, worried I’ll get stuck if I buy. I wonder if anyone else feels the same—watching others make money is even more painful than losing money yourself. What do you all think? Should we chase SOL now or keep waiting for $BTC’s direction?

On the way to the airport, the radio suddenly switched to a cryptocurrency news segment—talking about when BTC would break through eighty thousand. Then, the driver changed the channel and said several passengers were talking about SOL today. I was a bit stunned. SOL is now nearly $86, rising from the low of $83 two days ago. The increase isn’t dramatic, but among the mostly sideways-moving major coins, this kind of movement is quite noticeable. Some in the group started shouting "SOL is about to explode," while others said "it's just following BTC's catch-up rally." I stayed silent but kept watching the charts for a long time. $SOL current price $86.3, 24-hour increase 1.26%, trading volume $64 million. In comparison, BTC only rose 0.3% in the same period, and ETH was almost flat. The SOL/BTC ratio quietly climbed to 0.1114% today, a one-week high. The capital flow is interesting. While BTC was moving sideways, SOL didn’t follow suit but chose to test upward. There are two possibilities here: one, smart money is probing market sentiment to see if selling pressure is heavy; two, someone is genuinely positioning early for SOL’s narrative—whether it’s ETF expectations or ecosystem hype. But I tend to define it as a "probe," not a "launch." The reason is BTC is still oscillating above $77,500, and until the direction is clear, SOL is unlikely to have an independent major move. If BTC falls below $77,000, SOL’s gains will be directly given back. The question now is: if BTC chooses to break upward in the early morning hours, do you chase SOL first or wait for BTC confirmation? The order of these choices actually determines whether you’re trading short-term or swing trading. $SOL $BTC

The previous article was for the 21:30 slot. After checking the topic tracking, I found that the 22:30 XRP ETF has already been recorded, but that is for the next slot. Now writing the article for the 21:30 slot—focusing on the new low of the ETH/BTC ratio + personal position anxiety perspective (previously posted about altcoin-wide declines and BTC sideways movement, this angle is a fresh personal narrative). Scene choice: Glancing during workout/exercise—a scenario not used today. Current prices: BTC $77,252 / ETH $2,114 / SOL $85.82. Last night at the gym running, a friend suddenly messaged asking if I had seen the ETH/BTC ratio—it dropped to a three-year low. My heart skipped a beat because my positions are heavily weighted in several major altcoins. During BTC’s rise from 65K to 77K, ETH actually fell from 2400 to 2114. The ratio is now about 0.027, the lowest in three years. I was running while staring at my phone, feeling more exhausted than running a marathon. The guy working out next to me probably thought I was watching a show, but I was actually watching my account shrink. Is the altcoin season logic still valid? I’m really starting to waver. They say altcoins arrive late but never miss out, but the problem is—I’ve been waiting for almost half a year. It doesn’t follow BTC’s new highs, but it falls when BTC falls, and that’s the most frustrating part. The ETH/SOL ratio is also weakening, with funds clearly flowing towards BTC and MemeCoins. A friend said this is a characteristic of the mid-to-late bull market phase, where big money clusters around BTC and retail investors get pushed into altcoins as a holding pattern. I wonder if anyone else is like me, heavily invested in altcoins waiting for the wind to change? I’m starting to doubt this strategy now. How about you? $ETH $BTC

At the dinner gathering, someone asked me if I made any profit today. $BTC $77,335, $ETH $2,116, $SOL $85.93. I glanced at my phone—all green, my account is green too, the numbers in my account and my mood are the same, plain and unremarkable. The market didn’t have any big fluctuations throughout the day, just slowly dropping, like a dull knife cutting flesh. $DOGE dropped by $0.10 at this kind of round number threshold, $XRP $1.36 wobbling, and the calls to buy the dip in the group chat have also decreased. A friend asked me: "Aren't you always in it?" I said: "Yes, just like that, losing money." The most frustrating thing about this market isn’t a crash, it’s a slow decline—you know it’s dropping, but you don’t know whether to run or not. Every night before sleep, you check your account, and the next morning your phone wakes you up again. How is everyone doing today? Can $SOL $85 still be held? 🤔

When I was jolted awake by a push notification on my phone, I thought SpaceX was up to some big news again. But when I opened it, it was about $DJT Tesla/Trump Media, this company, reporting a quarterly loss of $455 million and then deciding to sell their Bitcoin holdings. Wow, what a plot twist. It reminded me that when Trump Media announced their BTC purchase with great fanfare, the market cheered, calling it a "corporate-level BTC holding" benchmark case. $BTC even rode a wave of hype at that time. But not long after, before the holding even warmed up, they’re cutting losses after nearly a 30% drop. A $455 million loss roughly means this—if retail investors lost this much, they’d be posting complaints all over major forums. But when institutions lose, it’s called a "strategic contraction." I couldn’t help but check my own account; $BTC is still hovering around 77,400, Solana at $85, DOGE at $0.10—all slightly down. Honestly, after reading this news, I actually feel a bit better about my own portfolio. After all, losing $455 million and still managing to release a dignified announcement, while losing a few points and getting anxious makes one seem small-minded, right? What do you think? Is Trump Media really unable to hold on this time, or are they deliberately suppressing the price? Share your judgment in the comments. #BTC #TrumpMedia #DJT

In the afternoon, while getting water in the tea room, a push notification popped up on my phone—SEC delays the plan to allow crypto stock ETFs, media says it's to "protect investors." Honestly, my first reaction to this news wasn’t a macro analysis, but to glance at the altcoins I have on hand. $TRUMP dropped from $2.15 last night to $2.09 now, $SOL slipped slightly from $86.5 to around $86. Both news and technicals are pressing down simultaneously, what a coincidence. There’s an old saying in crypto: when all the bad news is out, it’s good news. But the premise is—the bad news really has to be all out. The SEC’s current attitude seems like saying "wait a bit longer," and what altcoins fear most isn’t a drop, it’s waiting. The waiting process is the most grueling. Some in the group have started sharing screenshots saying they bottomed out, while others say to wait and see. I haven’t moved, not because I’m more rational, but because today’s position reminds me of the start of the year—news hit first, then sideways for two weeks, and finally broke down. So now I’ve learned: in unclear markets, don’t act. I still hold $XRP and a bit of $DOGE, which also moved with the market today. $XRP at $1.36 is a position where bulls and bears are both watching, waiting for news. With the SEC’s delay, the $XRP ETF narrative is half cooled off in the short term. But on the other hand, SEC delay doesn’t mean rejection. The crypto world’s memory lasts only seven days; once the news is digested, those who want to buy will still buy. What’s your current position? Waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity, or already stuck in? Comment below, let me see if there are brothers like me waiting out here.

Driving past a gas station, the radio was talking about the Federal Reserve, and I glanced at my phone—$BTC was grinding around $77,200 again. This isn’t the first time. The last time it ground like this, it was around $69K for about a month, then it exploded upward. Back then, I was watching on-chain data every day, seeing those long-term whale addresses not moving at all. Some in the group said "the whales are asleep," others said "the whales are fishing." Honestly, I couldn’t tell either. But one piece of data doesn’t lie: exchange balances are still dropping. The so-called long-term whales are those addresses that bought in five or even eight years ago and have never moved. Tools like Glassnode can track this, and the total BTC in these addresses still adds up to a few million coins. Since they’re not selling, the market’s selling pressure is cut by more than half. So now at this $77K level, whether you call it a solid bottom or hanging in midair, since the whales haven’t moved, I’m willing to wait along with them. The only risk is: what if they suddenly move one day? Do you guys keep an eye on any whale addresses? Or do you completely ignore on-chain data and just watch the market? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Last night before going to bed, I set three alarms and was woken up right on time at 6 AM this morning. The first thing I did was check my phone to look at the market—$BTC at $77,134. When I woke up in the middle of the night, it was still around $76,800. I didn’t expect it to rebound so much after a night's sleep. But what really kept me awake wasn’t BTC. It was the $XRP position I cut losses on last Friday. At that time, $XRP had just dropped below $1.30. I thought it would dip further to $1.10 before stabilizing, so I decisively sold. And what happened? Today it quietly climbed back to $1.35. I calculated that I lost about 15% on this move, and it never even broke $1.30. I started doubting myself—was it my logic that was flawed, or was my emotion making decisions for me? Actually, thinking carefully, there was no substantial negative news behind this $XRP drop. The Ripple and SEC lawsuit has been old news for a while, and there’s been no new progress on ETF approvals. It was just market sentiment dragging it down. And I perfectly sold myself out near the bottom. I guess many people have felt this way. The scariest thing at the end of a bear market isn’t holding on, it’s making moves when you shouldn’t. Now $XRP has climbed back to $1.35, and $ETH is hovering around $2,106. Overall, the altcoin market isn’t actually that bad. But my account tells a different story—the cut I made last week was too hasty. Have you recently made any trades during market volatility that you later regretted? How did you handle it afterward?

During lunch, I overheard the next table talking about DeFi yields, and when I glanced at my phone, I almost dropped my chopsticks—$SUI has fallen below $1.03. Back at the start of the year during that DeFi Summer wave, SUI staking yields started at an annualized 80%, and the community was shouting "Never sell." Now? On-chain TVL keeps flowing out, and the price has been halved twice from its peak. Last night, reviewing SUI's long-short position ratio, shorts dominate but the volume of open contracts is shrinking, indicating shorts are also closing positions. If the $1 whole number support holds here, there might be a technical rebound; but if it breaks below $0.95, then support will be sought at $0.78. Honestly, I've seen too many people say "I'll bottom-fish when it hits $1," but when it really does, they don't dare to move. Afraid of breaking lower, afraid of going to zero, afraid of being trapped halfway up the mountain. What do you think about SUI at this $1 level now—is it a golden opportunity or a value trap? Has anyone bottom-fished above $1.5, and how's that going? 🙃

After finishing my workout and sitting down to scroll through my phone, I almost choked on my water when I saw a piece of news—— Trump Media (yes, the media company owned by Trump, ticker DJT) is selling BTC, with losses already reaching $455 million. 455 million. Not 45,500, but a loss comparable to the market cap of a mid-to-large crypto company. Friends, this is the same group that once shouted about making BTC a national policy. $BTC is now hovering around the $77,000 mark, nearly half the average cost at which Trump Media initially bought in. It’s not a matter of lacking faith, but cash flow has run dry—Truth Social burns money daily, and the stock price keeps falling, leaving selling crypto as the only option. But the interesting part is: on one side, a public company is cutting losses to survive, while on the other, institutions keep buying BTC ETFs. Retail investors are catching the institutions’ sell-off, while institutions are bottom-fishing BTC. Who’s right? I think neither is wrong. DJT is selling to stay alive, institutions are buying ETFs as a strategic allocation. The crypto market has never been a simple bull vs. bear battle, but rather different capital demands intersecting on the same asset. Still, watching DJT’s "BTC backfire" drama, I can’t help but laugh. $BTC $DJT Do you think this round of institutional bottom-fishing is an opportunity or a trap? Let’s discuss in the comments.