币毒

I have a buddy in my group who is truly unbeatable... From the first time I went to his company, to later going hiking together. From 2023 to 2026, his contrarian moves really impress me. Every altcoin started to get caught in the net because of his chasing longs, and every mainstream coin hit ATHs because of his shorts. His contrarian power is the Pro Max I've ever seen. In 2023, he shorted $BTC at 16140; in 2024, he went long $STRK at 1.89; in 2026, he went long $ASTER at 0.76. Over all these years, every single trade, every single position, has been perfectly executed and convincing to me. Today, he posted a long position on $HYPE again, and this coin is basically done for.

The era of Ethereum is over. I have made countless statements about this before, but it doesn't change the fact that Ethereum still has one last positive catalyst. After that catalyst passes, Ethereum will be calm and quietly fade away, leaving people with only memories of what once was. Grandpa: Did you really buy Ethereum at $4900? Does anyone know what the final positive catalyst is? $ETH

Checking the market this morning, BTC is still hovering around $76,700, ETH at 2096, and SOL around 84. The total market capitalization is about $2.64 trillion, with BTC holding a 58.2% market share. The market isn't panicking, but volume is slightly weaker than yesterday. Major coins are generally in a consolidation phase with minor pullbacks. On the news front, Vitalik sent a pretty clear signal: the Ethereum Foundation will continue to slim down and sell less ETH, refocusing on research and critical infrastructure. This is a positive factor for ETH's mid-term narrative, but short-term funds clearly haven't fully bought into it yet. Another stronger theme remains high-elasticity topics. CoinDesk mentioned that HYPE-related funds are attracting capital, while BTC and ETH ETFs are seeing outflows; NEAR continues to strengthen due to active cross-chain products. The current market style is straightforward: large caps stabilize first, while small caps and strong narratives rotate in performance. This week, we need to watch US PCE, initial jobless claims, and housing data. As long as macro conditions don't worsen, there is room for altcoin recovery; but if data is strong, a pullback after a rally is still a risk. My personal feeling is that index positions can be held, short-term positions shouldn't be chased recklessly, and patience is needed to wait for divergence.

Every time Aster pumps a bit, a bunch of people want to short it, all hoping $ASTER dies. Of course, Aster itself has never disappointed, but I want to say, brothers, what if it doesn't? Then you’d just be out.

Morning market overview conclusion: The market is still in a relatively strong consolidation. BTC is currently around $77,000, with a slight increase in the past 24 hours; ETH is just above $2100, with a minor pullback; BNB remains stable, and SOL is still consolidating. According to CoinGecko data, the total market cap is about $2.65 trillion, with BTC dominance close to 58.3%, indicating that capital is clearly clustering around the leading coin. No need to overcomplicate the news today; the main theme remains "institutions and regulation." Some noteworthy points from CoinDesk this morning: Coinbase management publicly stated they are not afraid of Wall Street entering the market and continue to call for clearer regulatory frameworks; additionally, discussions about the Federal Reserve and crypto regulation are still progressing, showing that the biggest concern for large capital remains unchanged—first rules, then full-scale expansion. There is another point I think the market tends to overlook: stablecoins and on-chain payments are gradually becoming the default settlement layer for AI scenarios. This narrative hasn't fully impacted prices yet, but if it continues to develop, it will have more sustainability than just hype. So my understanding today is simple: the overall index trend is not bad, BTC remains the anchor, and altcoins wanting independent big moves still need to watch capital sentiment. At this stage, don’t get overly excited chasing gains; hold the strong ones and don’t fantasize too much about the weak ones.

This morning I took a look around, and the market sentiment is a bit more stable than yesterday. BTC has returned to around $76,741, up 1.8% in 24h; ETH is at 2116, up 2.4% in 24h; SOL at 85.8, BNB at 655.8. The total market cap has returned to $2.65 trillion, with the market up about 1.8% in 24h. BTC market dominance is 58.1%, and funds are still clearly favoring main chain assets. On the news front, last night's BTC rebound is somewhat related to a warming risk appetite. CoinDesk mentioned that Trump said the US-Iran peace agreement is "basically settled," so the market initially traded on easing geopolitical risks, which helped Bitcoin climb. But don’t get too carried away with this rally. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of $2.26 billion over the past two weeks, indicating that mid-term funds haven’t fully turned bullish. The current position looks more like a rebound confirmation rather than a reckless acceleration. Altcoins are starting to heat up again. NEAR surged nearly 15% in a single day, and high-volatility assets like PENGU, AI-related projects, and Hyperliquid are drawing attention again. My simple feeling is: the big coin needs to stabilize first for altcoins to have the qualification to continue performing; if BTC turns down again, the fast-rising altcoins will also fall quickly. Today, let’s first see if 76,000 can hold. If it holds, the market will continue moving towards "mainstream catch-up + rotation of popular themes"; if it doesn’t hold, it will still be about seizing rhythm within the volatility.

After this wave with Futu, Tiger, and Changqiao, I increasingly feel that many things are actually quite realistic. What is most encouraged now is basically buying a house, buying a car, getting married, paying social security, and trading A-shares; but what is truly restricted and monitored are overseas accounts, US stocks, off-exchange gold, cryptocurrencies, and foreign internet. Sometimes you realize that if something has no value at all, usually no one cares whether you touch it or not. Of course, I’m not saying all restricted things are necessarily good, nor am I encouraging anyone to defy any rules. It’s just that gradually you realize that the "right to choose" itself is actually a scarce resource. Many people think rules restrict actions, but in reality, many times they restrict a person's vision and the boundaries of their thinking. You don’t have to do it, but at least you should know that you actually have other paths to choose from.

Morning, the market first pulled back a bit. BTC 5,309 (-2.5%), ETH ,062 (-3.0%), BNB 50 (-0.9%), SOL 4.4 (-2.8%). The total market cap returned to around 2.60 trillion USD, 24h trading volume about 85.5 billion USD, BTC market dominance 58.0%, fear and greed index at 28, sentiment turning back towards fear. I see three points in the news today. First, CoinDesk data shows that after the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh took office, risk assets continued to be under pressure, and the market is first digesting macro expectations. Second, SEC commissioner Hester Peirce responded to the delay in crypto regulations and the controversy over "synthetic tokens," regulatory discussions are still ongoing, short-term this looks more like emotional disturbance. Third, the trend heat hasn't dissipated, coins like NEAR and HYPE are still among the top searches on CoinGecko, indicating that funds in the market haven't disappeared but are continuing to look for strong narratives during the pullback. My feeling is: this is not a lack of opportunity, but don't rush to heavily buy in. First, see if BTC can hold 75,000; if it holds, then talk about rotation; if it doesn't hold, altcoins will likely continue to bleed. Today, controlling the pace is more important than chasing a miracle trade.

The CSRC has really cracked down hard on Futu, Tiger, and Changqiao this time. The most critical part is not the rectification, but the phrase "confiscate illegal gains both domestic and overseas." Originally, many people thought the worst would be restricting domestic business, but now even the overseas income is included, which changes the whole tone. After the news came out, the market reaction was very direct, with stock prices plummeting. To some extent, this wave actually seems to be diverting traffic to Crypto. The tighter TradFi gets, the more people might engage with on-chain US stocks, RWA, stablecoins, and these kinds of things in the future.

The market on May 22, to put it simply, is still one thing: BTC hasn't crashed, altcoins continue to diverge. BTC is currently moving sideways around $77,000, with a slight pullback in 24 hours, but no panic selling pressure. The total market cap is about $2.67 trillion, and trading volume has even increased slightly compared to the previous day, indicating that money hasn't left, it's just more selective. The strongest recently is still HYPE. Ranked first on CoinGecko's popular list, and CoinDesk is also mentioning it continuing to hit new highs. The market is like this now: big coins are stable, and among small coins only the strongest narratives can keep attracting funds. Another point worth watching is that traditional finance is still pushing onto the blockchain. MoonPay has started providing banks and fintech companies with stablecoin, tokenized asset, and DeFi access; Blockchain has also submitted a confidential IPO filing in the US. This signal doesn't immediately pump the market but is positive for the industry's mid-term outlook. So my judgment today remains unchanged: this is not a full takeoff market, but more like a phase where funds hold core assets and strong leaders. Don't chase random small coins, focus on the main line, and wait for BTC to choose its direction first.