Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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I felt deeply moved, especially at point X. In the cryptocurrency market, which is characterized by high leverage and high volatility, you often see someone making hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in one go, and they are celebrated by the market for a while.
But looking at the long term, high leverage brings high risk. If you don't stop in time, profits and losses often come from the same source. When trading, especially leveraged contract trading, I strongly believe in talent and luck, but unfortunately, not everyone possesses these two.
Some people do become famous overnight, but honestly, I've been involved in X for about four years now. During these four years, I've seen many ambitious people, but very few have maintained that ambition for four years, especially in the high leverage and trading field.
Everyone wants to use a small amount of capital to gamble for big returns. I want that too; saying otherwise would be lying.
It all comes down to your mindset. I know many can't be persuaded otherwise. Everyone wants to get rich quickly, and it's always hard to see others showing off their profits. That's normal. My only advice is to maintain your composure at the table; that will be better than losing everything once and never having a chance to recover.
I'm almost dying of laughter. A reporter asked Vance how he views Trump trading stocks and openly publishing the stock codes for investors to buy, questioning whether this is a form of corruption or market manipulation. Vance's response was, "The president does not use Robinhood to buy or sell stocks himself."
The context is that Trump's latest financial disclosure shows his accounts had over 3,600 to 3,700 securities transactions in the first quarter of 2026, involving companies like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, etc., sparking conflict of interest controversies.
Vance responded that these trades were not placed by Trump himself but managed by independent third-party wealth advisors or financial institutions.
What caught my attention more is why Vance mentioned Robinhood? Maybe I should consider opening a position in $HOOD 🤔
The current sentiment is a bit complicated. I'm happy that my intuition was right—indeed, the US and Iran are entangled again. I closed all my short positions at the WTI low, but it's frustrating that the repeated back-and-forth between the US and Iran has started to fatigue the market. Especially since WTI's price has experienced three major swings since the temporary ceasefire on April 7. The market feels like a headless fly being led by the so-called "negotiations."
From a trend perspective, both the market and WTI itself have clear confidence in the "peace talks"—it's just a matter of time. Although there have been two failed attempts so far, WTI's price has been in a downward channel since the temporary ceasefire. The two failed negotiations have already pushed WTI's price down somewhat, which is what the market expected to see.
Monday is a US holiday, so the US stock market will be closed, allowing for some further easing. However, CME opens on Monday, which might cause some volatility in oil prices. At Friday's close, WTI was nearly $97, and the market may reassess this price.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, although many friends don't pay much attention, I still want to say that currently $BTC's price remains closely related to US politics, economy, and macro factors. On days when the US stock market is closed, these three data points are the best price guides for Bitcoin. The approach shouldn't be simply bullish when prices rise or bearish when they fall; instead, more focus should be placed on these three pieces of information.
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Phyrex.Ni
It finally looks like the probability of a complete ceasefire between the US and Iran has increased. Although it’s still uncertain whether this time it will really end, considering that China and others are pushing for it, and it’s already the end of May, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasting almost three months, the impact on the global economy has forced many countries to intervene. So at the very least, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should end by the end of May, which should be the most basic agreement.
The information currently received is still very positive. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan stated that this negotiation carries cautious optimism, which is the most positive response Iran has given since the ceasefire. Although this does not represent the final outcome, the US is also unusually serious in the discussions. Although Trump is still making rhetoric, he is clearly moving towards a full ceasefire process.
Currently, the price of the CLUSDT trading pair is around $94, but since the US stock market is closed on Monday for Memorial Day, CME is still open, so we can still see fluctuations in WTI prices. However, Trump’s intention seems to be to provide an answer before Monday, so now we just wait patiently.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, today once again proved that $BTC’s price is heavily influenced by US macro and political factors. During the day, many were talking about seeing $50,000, but the news of a US-Iran ceasefire in the evening turned BTC from a decline into a rise. There’s nothing more to say; BTC is currently a leading indicator of US stock market sentiment, especially since the US market is closed until Monday.
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Honestly, my sixth sense is pretty accurate. Early this morning, I closed all my short positions on WTI at $90 because I felt the situation in Iran was unstable. As expected, the negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled again. The US continues to block Iranian ports, while Iran is still blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
This afternoon, I said I would add to my position every time WTI rises by 0.5%, and now I've added up to $94. If it reaches $95, I'll hold off for a bit because at $95 it might pull back before heading to $100. I'll add more only after it passes $100.
Personally, I think $95 is a watershed moment this time. Although Trump says there's plenty of time to take it slow, he's more impatient than anyone. The June interest rate meeting has some significance; if someone like Powell dares to talk about cutting rates now, Americans would criticize him harshly, and the media would label it as Trump's influence.
What Trump is doing now is a test of endurance against Iran, but with limited time, he can only keep tightening the screws on Iran. So, I personally don't think WTI can stay above $100 for long. Even staying above $90 is enough to trigger another inflation surge in the US, especially with the midterm elections coming up this year.
Trump doesn't have much time left. So I choose to keep shorting WTI on rallies.
Phyrex.Ni
I slept straight through to the afternoon this time. After waking up, I went over the missed news again and found that Iran's level of cooperation is not very high. It's very likely that this is another case of unilateral US propaganda. However, judging from various signs, there has indeed been substantive communication between Iran and the US this time. There seem to be two unresolved details:
1. Who will manage the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran claims it will manage it, while the US says it will give Iran 30 days to "wrap things up." But from any perspective, WTI prices are very likely to experience some volatility.
2. The issue of enriched uranium.
This is probably the main reason why the US and Iran have not yet reached a full reconciliation. From the current information, the US is likely to offer Iran some minor leniency, though the specifics are unknown. However, this leniency probably does not satisfy Iran.
Considering these two points, even if the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens before trading starts on Tuesday, it will likely take some time for WTI prices to fall back below $80. So I am starting to place a bottom buy order to short again from $91.
Using the same logic, if WTI continues to rise, I will keep shorting at higher levels, roughly adding to my position every $0.5 increase. I have no target price, but my intuition (which may not be accurate) tells me I might catch orders at a high level.
Although I opened a short position on CLUSDT on Binance, I still recommend opening orders through a broker if your target price is below $80, because this time the duration might be quite long, and funding rates on exchanges probably won't be cheap.
I slept straight through to the afternoon this time. After waking up, I went over the missed news again and found that Iran's level of cooperation is not very high. It's very likely that this is another case of unilateral US propaganda. However, judging from various signs, there has indeed been substantive communication between Iran and the US this time. There seem to be two unresolved details:
1. Who will manage the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran claims it will manage it, while the US says it will give Iran 30 days to "wrap things up." But from any perspective, WTI prices are very likely to experience some volatility.
2. The issue of enriched uranium.
This is probably the main reason why the US and Iran have not yet reached a full reconciliation. From the current information, the US is likely to offer Iran some minor leniency, though the specifics are unknown. However, this leniency probably does not satisfy Iran.
Considering these two points, even if the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens before trading starts on Tuesday, it will likely take some time for WTI prices to fall back below $80. So I am starting to place a bottom buy order to short again from $91.
Using the same logic, if WTI continues to rise, I will keep shorting at higher levels, roughly adding to my position every $0.5 increase. I have no target price, but my intuition (which may not be accurate) tells me I might catch orders at a high level.
Although I opened a short position on CLUSDT on Binance, I still recommend opening orders through a broker if your target price is below $80, because this time the duration might be quite long, and funding rates on exchanges probably won't be cheap.
Phyrex.Ni
One more thing before going to sleep, maybe I closed too early, but it’s not a big deal. After all, my first target was $90, and after fully closing the position, the total profit exceeded 100%. That’s enough for me. If the funding rate were low, I could have held on, but currently, a funding rate over -0.3% is a bit inappropriate.
This is already the third wave I’ve done after the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The total profit has reached the expected goal. Of course, I believe there’s still room to go down further. Normally, reaching $80 wouldn’t be a problem, but it might take some time. I’m just waiting for this high funding rate period to pass before making any moves.
Of course, it’s also fine if I can’t continue to profit, since no one can make money from start to finish. This time’s profit is a good "knowledge monetization." I explained the reasons for shorting WTI for about four weeks and also provided the liquidation price settings and rationale. And I’m glad the liquidation price didn’t exceed $120.
What I want to express is that this is trend and cognitive trading, with relatively low risk and decent profits. If I can make a profit, you definitely can too. Below $90, if there’s a chance, I’ll make another move. If I miss it, it’s no big deal. There will be more opportunities.
Going to sleep.
One more thing before going to sleep, maybe I closed too early, but it’s not a big deal. After all, my first target was $90, and after fully closing the position, the total profit exceeded 100%. That’s enough for me. If the funding rate were low, I could have held on, but currently, a funding rate over -0.3% is a bit inappropriate.
This is already the third wave I’ve done after the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The total profit has reached the expected goal. Of course, I believe there’s still room to go down further. Normally, reaching $80 wouldn’t be a problem, but it might take some time. I’m just waiting for this high funding rate period to pass before making any moves.
Of course, it’s also fine if I can’t continue to profit, since no one can make money from start to finish. This time’s profit is a good "knowledge monetization." I explained the reasons for shorting WTI for about four weeks and also provided the liquidation price settings and rationale. And I’m glad the liquidation price didn’t exceed $120.
What I want to express is that this is trend and cognitive trading, with relatively low risk and decent profits. If I can make a profit, you definitely can too. Below $90, if there’s a chance, I’ll make another move. If I miss it, it’s no big deal. There will be more opportunities.
Going to sleep.
Phyrex.Ni
The average position is around 90 USD, all closed out. Worried there might be fluctuations; if WTI rises, I will continue shorting. Currently, the funding rate is too high, and there are too many uncertainties, so I’m not gambling for now.
Iranian media refutes Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported that Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened as part of a peace agreement with Tehran is "far from reality."
"According to the latest exchanged texts, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be managed by Iran," the statement said.
"Although Iran has agreed to restore the number of passing vessels to pre-war levels, this does not mean a return to the pre-war 'free passage' status.
"The management of the strait, determination of routes, timing, methods of passage, and issuance of permits will still be entirely controlled and decided at Iran's discretion by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump's statement in this regard is incomplete and inconsistent with reality."
The average position is around 90 USD, all closed out. Worried there might be fluctuations; if WTI rises, I will continue shorting. Currently, the funding rate is too high, and there are too many uncertainties, so I’m not gambling for now.
Iranian media refutes Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported that Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened as part of a peace agreement with Tehran is "far from reality."
"According to the latest exchanged texts, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be managed by Iran," the statement said.
"Although Iran has agreed to restore the number of passing vessels to pre-war levels, this does not mean a return to the pre-war 'free passage' status.
"The management of the strait, determination of routes, timing, methods of passage, and issuance of permits will still be entirely controlled and decided at Iran's discretion by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump's statement in this regard is incomplete and inconsistent with reality."
It finally looks like the probability of a complete ceasefire between the US and Iran has increased. Although it’s still uncertain whether this time it will really end, considering that China and others are pushing for it, and it’s already the end of May, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasting almost three months, the impact on the global economy has forced many countries to intervene. So at the very least, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should end by the end of May, which should be the most basic agreement.
The information currently received is still very positive. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan stated that this negotiation carries cautious optimism, which is the most positive response Iran has given since the ceasefire. Although this does not represent the final outcome, the US is also unusually serious in the discussions. Although Trump is still making rhetoric, he is clearly moving towards a full ceasefire process.
Currently, the price of the CLUSDT trading pair is around $94, but since the US stock market is closed on Monday for Memorial Day, CME is still open, so we can still see fluctuations in WTI prices. However, Trump’s intention seems to be to provide an answer before Monday, so now we just wait patiently.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, today once again proved that $BTC’s price is heavily influenced by US macro and political factors. During the day, many were talking about seeing $50,000, but the news of a US-Iran ceasefire in the evening turned BTC from a decline into a rise. There’s nothing more to say; BTC is currently a leading indicator of US stock market sentiment, especially since the US market is closed until Monday.
#Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
A lot happened today, with the key point being that Waller has officially been appointed as the Fed Chair. Although both he and Trump say they want to maintain the Fed's independence, the real situation will become clear at the June FOMC meeting and the dot plot. It's not very meaningful to speculate now; when the meeting comes, it will be the handover between the Fed's old and new camps. I guess Trump will be nervous too—will Waller obey or not?
The US and Iran remain a side issue for now, but this side issue deeply affects the main storyline. Today, WTI briefly dropped below $95, mainly because the market heard news that the US and Iran might reconcile. But as I said, don’t just look at the US side or the Iran side alone—look at their joint statement, just like with the temporary ceasefire. If there’s no joint statement, don’t believe it.
Sure enough, just when market expectations were good, Iran came out saying it’s still very early to reach an agreement, which immediately pushed WTI prices up by $2. However, from various signs, it is indeed possible to reach a preliminary reconciliation before June, at least ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open. WTI dropping below $90 would be about right.
I’ve been saying to short WTI for a long time. Previously, I didn’t dare hold because funding rates were too high. Now, Binance’s CLUSDT funding rates have dropped a lot; this week’s funding rates are almost negligible, so holding costs are much lower. My first target is still $90, but I think once it hits $90, the downside will accelerate. Let’s watch $90 first.
Back to Bitcoin data, the price is still in a slight oscillation trend and is still connected to the US stock market. However, $BTC is clearly more affected by macro factors. Any small disturbance causes short-term investors to exit. But from the data, whether it’s spot ETFs or native investors, performance is very good with no tension, and turnover remains low.
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Iran and Pakistan submit revised ceasefire proposal to the United States and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
According to news reports, Iran and Pakistan have submitted a revised proposal to the United States aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Two unnamed Pakistani sources told Reuters that Washington is expected to respond to the proposal by Sunday.
Previously, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that some progress has been made in negotiations with Iran, and the United States may issue some statements on the matter in the coming days.
Phyrex.Ni
China urges Pakistan to strengthen mediation efforts between Iran and the United States
China is also pushing Pakistan, having requested Islamabad to intensify diplomatic efforts, after which Pakistan's military chief rushed to Tehran.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Beijing. China is closely monitoring the situation. Pakistan has also received support from friendly countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
The U.S. President will also hold talks with them. There are currently rumors that Iran and Pakistan have submitted a revised proposal to the U.S. to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the news has not yet been verified, Binance's CLUSDT price has already dropped to around $94, funding rates have started to rise sharply, short positions on WTI are increasing, and the market shows a high level of trust in this information.
