灯塔说
灯塔说
Established trader It mainly focuses on trading products such as BTC, ETH, and gold and crude oil, which have high liquidity If you want to join a member copy trading, it is recommended to observe for more than one month Click to follow and subscribe first!
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What have I been doing these past two weeks?
The last market update was already two weeks ago.
Review: The 80500 grid short position has already taken profit.
The daily chart adjustment has reached a critical area.
Protectively locking in profits.
What have I been doing during this time?
Watching the market every day, no strong desire to share short-term views.
Attended some gatherings around Pizza Day.
Also met some new and old friends.
Thoughts: Keep progressing, or you’ll fall behind.
What’s the outlook for the market?
$BTC major index (BTC), above 75k, is expected to start a new rebound. Breaking through 78.2K will reverse the 4-hour downtrend structure.
$XAU Gold has also mostly adjusted, downside around 4300-4350, then expected to rise near 5000.
$OIL Crude oil near 90 is not considered for short positions anymore, risk-reward is low, and any twitch from Trump could easily cause a rebound, which is frustrating.
If there really is a ceasefire, breaking 80 is about it; if no ceasefire, a rebound to 110 is about it.
Is a complete ceasefire possible? Not likely, there will definitely be some tug-of-war, even if a ceasefire happens, there will be minor skirmishes.
On the macro side, there’s a lot to watch, can’t cover it all in a sentence or two.
These are my spontaneous thoughts today, just sharing!
灯塔说
Here's my current understanding of the market situation:
$BTC is currently consuming the sell order pressure in the 82-85K range.
At the same time, the Middle East situation hasn't developed in a particularly positive direction yet.
However, a pullback here would be a normal movement.
After the pullback, the uptrend will continue.
The US stock market is strong, so BTC won't drop independently.
The current market is in a strong right-side phase.
If it breaks below the previously mentioned 78,200,
that would only confirm a short-term weakening of the 4-hour level uptrend.
After the pullback, the rise will continue.
Although the daily level is in a downtrend, the bottom has already formed a bullish EMA crossover signal.
This signal, until a bearish death cross reversal occurs, is a long-term hold signal for bottom long positions.
So, trading must be flexible.
If it's a bearish position, wait for the daily rebound to finish or for another death cross on the right side.
If it's a bullish position, hold according to the daily chart (bottom low-leverage contracts or spot).
That's all for tonight.
Haven't rested well these past two days; today I played badminton with Brother Fu @FLS_OTC.
I'm exhausted; as an amateur, I can't beat a pro.
This is a flexible strong (fat) guy.
#在OKX交易美股：AI双雄押哪边？
The clearance of brokers like Tiger and Futu
Maybe the government is making you passively sell at the peak
Look back after many years
To see if that's really the case.
$BTC pierced 74800 then rebounded and reclaimed above 76000, this is a fake breakdown
Next is the bulls
Striving to push towards new highs
If it breaks down below 75000, it will continue to test 73K and 71K
But this is a correction within the mid-term uptrend on the daily chart
After the correction, it will rise again
Before breaking through 74800, the market will not rebound
If it still remains weak after breaking through 74800
It will further look towards 70-71K
$BTC
Billionaire Wang Chun's second flight
But this time it's a two-year deep space journey, flying past Mars and then returning to Earth
My first reaction was, aren't you afraid of accidents?
Have all the details been explained in advance?
Is it that after reaching a certain level of wealth, one starts to become indifferent to life and death and pursues spiritual fulfillment?
If you had billions, would you take such a trip? $BTC #SpaceX递交招股书：首次披露BTC持仓
#美伊30天意向书：Hormuz risk premium narrows. The Supreme Leader of Iran just stated: Uranium can only remain in Iran.
This has a significant impact on the negotiations.
Oil prices are set to rise again.
Gold and Bitcoin are both affected and pulling back.
$BTC $XAU $CL
After watching the planet for a few days, I found that 80-90% of the public square is filled with paid posters and spam posts
There is not much quality
#美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布
Entering the summer rainy season soon
Flood warning levels will also appear
The Water Resources Bureau and flood control departments will closely monitor
Just like what is gradually coming into view currently:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields (10-year, 30-year)
According to the official curve from the U.S. Treasury on May 15:
10-year at 4.59%, 20-year at 5.14%, 30-year at 5.12%;
Intraday on May 18 showed: 10-year once reached 4.631%, 30-year reached 5.159%, just a step away from the historical high since 2007.
Barclays strategists warned clients that yields could break 5.5%, reaching the highest level since 2004.
Although not as extremely high as in the past, it is already in a relatively high range.
The market is also starting to closely watch this yield curve.
What impact does the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields have?
Simply understand these two points, and you’ll get it:
1. You can see high long-term U.S. Treasury yields as a strong dollar; what does a strong dollar mean?
2. It can also be understood as high U.S. Treasury rates compared to other yields that are not high; what actions will the market take?
The purpose of sharing here is not to create panic, just purely to share a recent macro market point.
Also, the background of high long-term U.S. Treasury yields varies, so the impact differs.
But the impact is mainly influenced by complex international events, especially the chain reaction of high oil prices caused by the U.S.-Iran war.
The related impacts are very complex.
But one thing remains unchanged: the current rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields suppresses the U.S. stock market, crypto market, and gold market.
However, gold has a safe-haven attribute in turbulent times.
The crypto market’s "digital gold" safe-haven attribute is more uncertain.
$BTC #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布 #高盛清仓，机构持仓分化 #推迟打击非停战：美伊本周窗口待定
